Originally posted May 23, 2020
- L1: An Optimistic Recovery Path scenario in which pent-up demand fuels a rapid economic V-shape recovery with overshoot on the rebound, with short-term results better than currently expected
- L2: Consensus Economic Forecast – the mid-range of forecasts by economic experts, now calling for a mild second Covid-19 wave will a reliable vaccine around the corner followed by a slow W-shape recovery curve with some period of economic growth before the recovery process
- L3: Pessimistic Outlook a larger second Covid-19 Wave occurs, with a reliable vaccine around the corner causing structural damage to the economy and a lengthy period of recession
- L4: Economic Depression Scenario of a long-term recession with no reliable vaccine around the corner tipping the economy into depression due to a larger second Covid-19 wave. with “worst-case” estimates by economists and negative assumptions such as severe second waves of infection or protectionist politics.
Las Vegas, NV·Posted May 23, 2020