Global COVID-19 GDP Risk Ranges Up to $82 Trillion

Originally posted May 23, 2020

Four Scenarios

  1. L1: An Optimistic Recovery Path scenario in which pent-up demand fuels a rapid economic V-shape recovery with overshoot on the rebound, with short-term results better than currently expected
  2. L2: Consensus Economic Forecast – the mid-range of forecasts by economic experts, now calling for a mild second Covid-19 wave will a reliable vaccine around the corner followed by a slow W-shape recovery curve with some period of economic growth before the recovery process
  3. L3: Pessimistic Outlook a larger second Covid-19 Wave occurs, with a reliable vaccine around the corner causing structural damage to the economy and a lengthy period of recession
  4. L4: Economic Depression Scenario of a long-term recession with no reliable vaccine around the corner tipping the economy into depression due to a larger second Covid-19 wave. with “worst-case” estimates by economists and negative assumptions such as severe second waves of infection or protectionist politics.

Las Vegas, NV·Posted May 23, 2020

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